01 December 2016

A Song of Supply and Demand


I write themed final exam review for the Economics course I tutor, because I am a huge nerd. Now you can enjoy some Game of Thrones themed Economics problems while you wait for Season 7.

Congratulations! You have been appointed the Master of Coin, and now sit on the King’s small council – one of the most influential positions in all of Westeros. However, such a position of power is always a precarious one, so ensure you deal with the following problems carefully!

A Game of Loans
The Hand of the King wishes to host a tournament celebrating the King’s upcoming birthday, and has decreed a rise in income taxes from 10% to 20% in order to supply the prize money. You have some money put away in the Iron Bank of Braavos earning 10% interest, and inflation is consistently 1%. What will the effective tax rate be on your real interest, both before and after the Hand’s tax increase?

A Basket of Things
The visiting Warden of the West is concerned at the increasing cost of living in Casterly Rock, bringing along his Maester and a set of figures representing the consumption and price of various consumer goods from both this year and last year.

Last year, citizens bought:
  • 10000 loaves of bread at 1 copper stars each
  • 1000 barrels of wine at 100 copper stars each
  • 5000 pounds of meat at 10 copper stars per pound
This year, citizens bought:
  • 10000 loaves of bread at 2 copper stars each
  • 2000 barrels of wine at 110 copper stars each
  • 6000 pounds of meat at 15 copper stars per pound.

The King asks that you calculate the CPI in both years, and the inflation rate, and show your work & results to the Lannister Lord.

A Store of Swords
The King’s least favourite cousin wishes to start up his own sword shop in Oldtown, but has no idea how to run a business, as evidenced by the failure of his previous six shops. He claims he can obtain swords at 3 golden dragons each, and wants the King to grant him a local monopoly to ensure good business. The Master of Whisperers has managed to obtain the following information relating to demand for swords in Oldtown.
Price
Quantity Demanded
Total Revenue
Marginal Revenue
Marginal Cost
Total Cost
Profit
10
10










9
15










8
20










7
30










6
40










5
60










4
80










3
110










2
150










1
200












The King orders that you complete the table and find the profit maximization point so his halfwit cousin isn’t driven out of business (again). What would the price likely be if the King decides not to grant a local monopoly?

The Wines of Winter
Winter is coming, and despite their political troubles, all of the Seven Kingdoms want to stock up on fine Arbor wines (in anticipation of decreased supply during the winter years). Draw a supply and demand diagram showing what happens.

The Grand Maester is alarmed at the rapidly changing price of wine, and suggests issuing a proclamation freezing the price of Arbor Red. Show on the diagram what is likely to occur, and explain to the Grand Maester what these consequences will be.

How might wine-makers and wine-buyers react to the resulting Shortage/Surplus? What other rationing methods might come into play?

01 November 2016

30 Things (Updates & Revisions III)

Several years ago I set a list of thirty goals for myself to accomplish before I turn thirty and have to think of an even more ridiculous list of forty items. The list has gone through several iterations as my goals change or (more rarely) actually get accomplished.

30 Things: The Original Series
30 Things: The Next Generation
30 Things: Deep Space 9

And now presenting everyone's second least favorite installment:

30 Things: Voyager!

Totally Incomplete (8/30)
  • Propose to a woman
  • Learn to play an instrument passably well: All I've really done is stated a vague intention to purchase a guitar - and I really want to learn this by my 30th birthday so I can subject you all to a live performance
  • Eat at a Three Hatted restaurant (I mean at least I know that high end restaurants have hats and not stars now - progress?)
  • Travel to Uluru
  • Swim naked in the Pacific Ocean: I'm actually really surprised this hasn't happened yet
  • Purchase some land
  • Grow and eat my own food (Herbs count and are the most likely method by which I will achieve this goal)
In Progress (9/30)
  • Te Araroa: Newly added to the list, and trip planning is well underway (to occur starting in late 2018)
  • Visit every continent: 5/7 - I am missing Africa and Antarctica. Africa will likely be a vacation in a couple years, but I'm seriously considering applying for jobs in Antarctica post-PhD
  • Still Omitted:  Progress slow and boring
  • Get a tattoo: Design is picked so I need to actually take some time and find a good place to get it done - maybe this summer.
  • Write a novel: I've gotten an outline written, but all my writing time at the moment is focused in on my PhD, so won't get to make any more headway on this until next year.
  • Get a PhD: Big deadline coming up this month - on track if I meet it, and in deep trouble if I don't. Wish me luck!
  • Become proficient in a martial art: Really need to get cracking on this one - should get a start within the next year and then specify a more specific definition of proficiency.
  • Read the Gateway to 'The Great Books' - note that I've gradually reduced the ambition of this goal (from the whole Great Books to half to just the introductory series). This is largely a symptom of the sheer length of my reading list! I'll make reading the whole series a part of my '40 before 40' goals.
  • Become fit enough to pass this
  • Put together a GOOD bag and BOAT: Started putting them back together, but don't have all the items, and relatively low priority to purchase.
Completed (13/30)
  • Become a member of the ADF (Reserve)
  • Save (in some form) at least $15,000 (AUS)
  • Go on a date without regard to cost
  • Give blood: I now give semi-regularly (Plasma and Whole)
  • Omitted and completed: With bonus subsequent mountain climb
  • Give away or sell all my excess junk after graduation
  • See a country music act live in concert
  • Have a research paper published: Still here, second one here, third and fourth coming soon!
  • Drive a car faster than 100 mph
  • Fly in a helicopter
  • Cook my way through a cookbook (Done with much thanks to Sarah for the assistance!)
  • Spend a week in the woods: Field portion of my last training block
  • Learn to ride something with 4 legs or less than 4 wheels: Got a motorbike and a permit (still really need to get my full licence though)
Given that I now have less than three years to complete the remainder of this list, I need to get cracking!

03 October 2016

The First Annual Austen Erickson Intellectual Audit


Dear Friends,

I occasionally reflect that my blog resembles the noble tardigrade. A small creature, surprisingly adorable yet still slightly horrifying, and which has the ability to revive itself after many months (or even years) of apparent death.



Left: Adorable tummy-rubby floof; Right: NIGHTMARE SURPRISE

In honor of its current resurrection from cryptoblogosis, I'd like to try something which I've tossed around in my head for a few years: an intellectual audit of my belief system carried out with the assistance of you all - my brilliant friends with whom I frequently disagree about a variety of topics.

This is still an experimental process, and I hope to refine it considerably in future years, but the basic idea is to spend some dedicated time challenging my strongly held beliefs, and exploring deeper into areas in which I still have weak beliefs and/or sparse knowledge. This will necessarily be an incomplete audit (like most people I believe many things about many things), but I hope that it moves my beliefs closer to True (or rather, appropriately increases or decreases my confidence in them).

Below is a (somewhat haphazard) list of broad belief systems I approximately subscribe to, specific beliefs I hold, and some unanswered questions I haven't been able to find a sufficiently convincing answer to.

I'm looking for encompassing refutations or alternate belief systems I should consider, specific challenges or counter-examples, and any evidence one way or another that I may not be aware of. (NB: published evidence > expert opinion > personal opinion, consequentialist arguments preferable but not required - anything is welcome)

Importantly - I am NOT trying to start a debate! This is a (purely selfish) exercise in updating my own beliefs (though I will make every effort to give you my own thoughts if you run the same exercise).

I look forward to your thoughtful responses, safe in the knowledge that no one is ever unreasonable on the internet.
  1. Libertarianism: What are some cases where more government might be better than less (or some better than none)?
  2. Transhumanism: I want to learn more about this topic and would love any good primers (laudatory or critical) that people could recommend.
  3. Many-Worlds: I admit that my belief is mostly based on the LW Quantum Physics Sequence, so I'd be eager to see similarly intuitive explanations of alternative interpretations of quantum mechanics.
  4. Intermittent Fasting: I incorporate occasional (up to 24-hour) fasts into my diet. At the very least this seems to reduce my total caloric intake - is it likely to have other health benefits/risks?
  5. Exchange-Traded Index Funds: Most of my long term saving goes into various low-fee ETFs. Can I realistically be doing better (given that I don't want to spend a lot of thought/energy on this)?
  6. Existential Risk vs. Efficient Charity: I would like some advice on how I should be splitting my charitable donations between efficient charities (i.e. Against Malaria Foundation) that have concrete effects now, and non-profits that focus on existential risk (e.g. MIRI)
  7. Nuclear Fission: Currently, its the safest, greenest, and most efficient form of electrical power generation that exists. Am I right?
  8. What supplements should I be taking? (Nootropics, and for physical health)
  9. What is the current state of cyronics in Australia? Is it worth signing up for with an international provider or best to wait until there is a local facility?
  10. If I wanted to start teaching myself more about architecture, what are the best introductory texts?

A FINAL NOTE: I encourage all of you to perform your own intellectual audit! Make sure you link back to this post to help feed my insatiable ego (and let me know so I can share some knowledge your way!)